AGP Executive Report

Iran-US tensions: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Donald Trump to avoid “turmoil,” saying problems can be solved through dialogue tied to a memorandum of understanding, while warning Iran would “never surrender” to aggression. Lebanon-Israel talks: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem again rejected the U.S.-backed Lebanon-Israel framework deal, calling it illegitimate and refusing “pilot zones” and any verification plan; a new round was expected in early September but no date is set. Gaza and West Bank: Israeli strikes killed at least five in Gaza and three in the West Bank amid a fragile ceasefire. Gulf security and shipping: Reports say the Iran war is straining U.S. readiness, with arms moved from Europe and Asia to the Middle East contributing to “shortfalls in payroll” and reduced stockpiles. Energy shock: New analysis says the Iran war has pushed up fossil-fuel costs for importers by over $330 billion since February, while accelerating renewables investment in some countries. Regional development: Qatar and the FIVB launched a Beach Volleyball Centre of Excellence in Doha to train athletes, coaches and youth across the region.

Iran-US Talks: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says diplomacy is “not impossible” but only if Washington drops its pressure campaign, as sanctions and Hormuz shipping curbs keep squeezing Tehran. Hormuz Shipping: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising, but still sit around half the pre-war level, with attacks and risky voyage guidance lingering. UN Syria Position: Qatar, speaking for the Arab Group at the UN Security Council, renewed support for Syria’s unity and stability and backed steps toward recovery and refugee returns. Mecca Defense Pact: Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan’s Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is drawing new questions on who might join next, with Bangladesh and Egypt watching and Iran’s stance unclear. Gulf War Impact: Reports say Iranian strikes caused “unprecedented damage” to US intelligence sites and surveillance gear across the region. Energy & Trade: Middle East conflict continues to reprice global logistics and fuel costs, while ports and shipping firms push new routes and partnerships. Business Finance: Pakistan’s Bank of Punjab posted strong 1H results and declared a record 16% interim dividend.

US-Iran War at Six Months: The U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran has entered its six-month mark, with Washington shifting toward heavier economic pressure and sanctions on any country or entity doing business with Tehran, even as concerns grow over depleted U.S. munitions and readiness. Timeline Watch: A six-month recap highlights the opening Feb. 28 strikes, Iran’s retaliatory moves, and the widening regional spillover. Gaza Humanitarian Toll: UNICEF says Israeli attacks have destroyed a warehouse of nutrition supplies and damaged water infrastructure in Gaza, leaving thousands of children and families facing worsening shortages. Energy Costs Hit Households: Northern Ireland’s Consumer Council warns of a “very serious” winter as SSE Airtricity raises gas tariffs by 19.2% from October, pushing typical bills toward £2,000+ when combined with electricity. Red Sea Security: Red Sea and Gulf of Aden states are seeking stronger maritime security cooperation to tackle piracy, trafficking, and shipping disruptions. Business & Infrastructure: UAE-linked energy engineering work continues, with Technip Energies hired for ADNOC Offshore’s major offshore gas project.

Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s foreign minister met Iran’s top diplomat in Tehran to push de-escalation and discuss a Hormuz framework with Oman, stressing freedom of navigation as the US blockade tightens pressure on Iran’s oil supplies. Energy & Shipping Pressure: The Strait of Hormuz remains a key chokepoint for Persian Gulf crude exports, with talks and sanctions threats shaping regional security and market expectations. COP17 Rangelands: Qatar highlighted efforts to protect and rehabilitate rangelands and restore terrestrial ecosystems at COP17’s ministerial dialogue, framing land resilience as vital for biodiversity and drought recovery. Local Food & Farming Impact: In the UAE, a Sharjah-area fishing and aquaculture festival promoted local fish awareness and supported community businesses, while in the wider region, heavy monsoon rains have shown how conflict-linked costs can worsen food supply strain. Oil-Driven Budgets: Middle East war-linked fuel price swings are also feeding into public finances abroad, with energy exporters seeing budget reversals as prices move.

Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM Sheikh Mohammed visits Tehran to push de-escalation and revive US-Iran talks, with Strait of Hormuz shipping a key focus as traffic remains largely disrupted. Regional Energy & Shipping: Oil prices eased on hopes the Strait could reopen, while Iran-Oman discussions continue over a phased plan to restore passage. Jordan–China Ties: King Abdullah’s ninth China visit highlights a shift toward deeper investment and technology partnerships, not just trade. Saudi Housing & Investment: Saudi Arabia reports a 66.24% homeownership rate in 2025, and new rules for non-Saudis aim to broaden foreign participation in real estate. Business & Infrastructure: ACWA Power and Korea Western Power sign an MoU to explore renewable energy, storage and infrastructure opportunities in Uzbekistan. Sports in the Gulf: FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 tickets go on sale in Doha, with early-bird discounts running until Aug. 29. Ports Watch: India’s Jawaharlal Nehru Port posts the fastest growth among top global container terminals in H1 2026, aided by diversion of West Asia-bound cargo.

Syria’s Rebuild Push: Syria’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism has been lifted, a move officials say removes a major barrier to banking flows via SWIFT and could unlock new Western, Arab and Turkish bank activity as Damascus upgrades its financial system. Qatar Governance & Finance: Qatar’s Cabinet approved updates to the Official Gazette’s electronic publication system and backed a draft law on real estate tokenisation, with the bill set to be posted on the Sharek platform for public feedback. WHO Leadership Bid: Qatar’s former health minister Dr Hanan Al Kuwari has been nominated for WHO Director-General, with voting set for May 2027. Hormuz Shipping Talks: Iran and Oman are negotiating a temporary corridor and mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran warns military ships may be barred if an agreement is finalized. Regional Security Spillover: A report says Iran’s attacks on US intelligence sites across the Middle East caused billions in damage, prompting Congress to fund repairs. Maritime Cooperation: Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti and Somalia met in Nairobi to coordinate Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime law enforcement as threats spread.

UNRWA Clash: Israel reproached UN chief António Guterres over claims tied to Israel’s takeover of an UNRWA educational center in Jerusalem, with Israeli officials saying the UN chief “does not tell the truth” and arguing the facility was occupied illegally. Hormuz Shipping Talks: Iran says it and Oman are negotiating a framework that would exclude military vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while diplomacy around a temporary corridor continues to shape regional shipping and energy expectations. Gulf Life Under Strain: A new report finds many Gulf expats and foreign workers are staying put despite the Iran-linked war disruption, citing better pay and security than at home, even as travel and schooling are repeatedly affected. Saudi-France Pivot: Saudi Arabia’s France visit highlights Vision 2030 diversification, with major deals including defense, health, AI and entertainment, as Gulf leaders seek partners beyond the US. GCC Markets Watch: Shein’s IPO draws strong GCC institutional interest ahead of retail demand, while Saudi logistics and industrial rents keep rising in key cities. Education & Rights: UNICEF warns conflicts are hitting children’s right to education across MENA, as debate continues over schooling access amid the wider crisis.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman restarted talks on a “joint temporary navigational corridor” and agreed to clear mines, as an oil tanker was disabled by an unidentified projectile near Oman—raising fresh shipping and energy-supply fears. US-Iran Pressure: The US expanded sanctions on Iran and signaled a shift toward economic pressure, while Rubio reportedly told allies the US would pause strikes “for the time being” and focus on Treasury measures. Pakistan-Iran Talks: Pakistan’s interior minister met Iran’s president after Field Marshal Asim Munir’s visit, discussing steps to restore the Islamabad MoU and push for regional de-escalation. Aviation Costs & Operations: In the Philippines, NAIA operator standards are being tightened for airlines, while PAL faces higher fuel surcharges tied to Middle East-driven crude moves. Energy & Daily Life: The Philippines is set to sell remaining government LPG stocks to retailers, and fuel-price hikes continue with no new private-motorist subsidy yet discussed. Health & Inclusion: Qatar-led autism advocacy coalition expanded globally, aiming to improve diagnosis, policy, investment, and lifelong support.

Iran Sanctions Push: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new “economic onslaught” against Iran, adding sanctions on nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and warning other countries and firms that dealing with Tehran could trigger secondary penalties. Oil & Markets: Oil was quoted around $90.21 a barrel as investors weighed the sanctions threat against fears of supply disruption, while regional and global risk sentiment stayed cautious. Middle East Tensions: China warned that sanctions only “exacerbate tensions,” as Iran vowed retaliation after Washington widened its pressure campaign. West Bank Settlements: Singapore’s foreign ministry reiterated Israel’s settlement expansion is illegal under international law, urging Israel to halt plans tied to the E1 area. Energy Infrastructure: L&T Renewables won a major Middle East order for 6 GWh of battery storage across three projects, aiming to strengthen grid stability and renewable integration. Defense & Shipping: The USS Abraham Lincoln is set to dock in Thailand next week after a long Middle East deployment, amid renewed attention on crew conditions. Community & Hate: London’s mayor announced £875,000 to tackle antisemitism and anti-Muslim hate, citing rising incidents linked to the Middle East conflict.

Hormuz Flashpoint: A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly hit by an unknown projectile, disabling its engine room; crew were said to be safe as authorities investigate, with Iran widely suspected. Sanctions Push: The US Treasury launched “Operation Economic Outcast” to cut off Iran’s financial networks, targeting oil, shipping, procurement and cyber income, while warning countries and firms that do business with Tehran could face secondary penalties. Saudi-France Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia and France called for a negotiated solution on Iran, condemned attacks on vessels in Hormuz, and backed uninterrupted navigation, while also deepening ties through a major strategic partnership council and dozens of agreements. Regional Humanitarian Funding: US Secretary of State Randeep Sarai wrapped visits to Lebanon and Jordan, announcing nearly $80m for humanitarian needs, food security and inclusive economic opportunities. US-Syria Reversal: The US removed Syria from its state sponsors of terrorism list, clearing the way for wider investment and aid as Syria’s reintegration accelerates. Business & Markets: Oil prices slipped on the sanctions outlook, while investors watched whether the US can meaningfully tighten pressure on Iran’s biggest backers.

Fuel & Cost Pressures: Philippines’ DOE says another fuel price hike starts Aug. 25, with diesel up as much as ₱2.31/liter and gasoline up to ₱1.08, citing Middle East tensions and weaker prospects for US-Iran de-escalation. Regional Security Pacts: Iran says it wasn’t asked to join the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Mecca” joint defence agreement, but proposals for regional security talks have been made. Israel-Turkey-Syria Tensions: An Israeli strike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase has heightened strains with Turkey and raises fears Syria could become a flashpoint where security red lines overlap. US Sanctions on Iran: Washington is set to unveil new “economic D-Day” measures targeting Iran and partners, as oil prices slip and markets brace for tougher pressure. Strait of Hormuz Risk: Iran’s parliament advances a plan to charge transit ships for services in special circumstances, adding to uncertainty around navigation and shipping costs. Business & Development: Abu Dhabi rolls out a “Livability by Design” framework for major urban projects, while Egypt launches BelMasry, a free sovereign AI platform for Egyptian Arabic and translation into 50 languages. Finance Watch: Moody’s upgrades Pakistan’s sovereign rating to B3 from Caa1, citing improving external position and debt affordability despite ongoing regional conflict.

Iran-U.S. Tensions: Iran warns any support for new U.S. sanctions would be an “act of war,” as Washington prepares “toughest sanctions in history” and mediators push for renewed talks. Hormuz Shipping: Analysts say traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged, with more ships slipping through under escort as Iran’s oil exports reportedly stall. UAE-Iran Fallout: The UAE suspends all trade and financial transactions with Iran “until further notice” after accusing Tehran of ballistic missile attacks. Energy Shock: Oil prices jump again on the Hormuz impasse, keeping pressure on inflation and markets. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Ishaq Dar heads to the UK for talks on trade and security, including issues involving Pakistani crews held by Somali pirates. Business & Community: Qatar’s Msheireb Properties partners with Inc. Arabia to host business and innovation events in Doha. Local Economy Watch: Philippines growth faces further strain in 2026 as Middle East war risks, governance concerns, and El Niño weigh on inflation and borrowing costs.

Lebanon Economic Shock: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will shrink 6.4% in 2026 after renewed war with Israel, undoing a 2025 recovery and leaving hundreds of thousands displaced and water infrastructure heavily damaged. Cybersecurity & Energy: Iran-linked hackers shut down a UK power plant for four days, officials say it was small-scale and didn’t hit the wider grid, but the breach raises fears of wider state-backed cyber threats. UAE Drone Defense: The UAE has installed steel “cope cages” around fuel tanks in Abu Dhabi and near Dubai airport to blunt drone attacks, following earlier strikes on key infrastructure. Gold & Silver Watch: Dubai gold prices jumped above Dh550/gram on a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand; Egypt silver rose about 10.7% in a week. Business & Investment: Dubai Chambers held roundtables in Bengaluru with 71 investors to boost Indian firms’ expansion into Dubai and wider MENA/Africa markets. Education Push (Saudi): 51Talk launched Saudi-focused English courseware with Oxford-licensed content and live one-on-one lessons.

US-Iran Tensions: Egypt is pushing to restart US-Iran talks as Strait of Hormuz risks rise and Israel carries out strikes in Syria, with Iranian and Iraqi officials also discussing tanker transits. Middle East Diplomacy: Iran’s new security chief Mohsen Rezai warns countries against joining America’s “economic war,” threatening retaliation that could target oil routes. Syria/Golan Fallout: Trump envoy Tom Barrack faces criticism over Syria and Golan comments, adding friction to already tense US regional messaging. Congo Peace Process: DR Congo and M23 agreed a Doha-framework roadmap for comprehensive peace talks, including steps to report ceasefire violations, though fighting remains fragile. Qatar Education: Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar’s Qatar Aspiring Doctors Programme brought 36 students from 21 schools through pre-med training and research skills. Qatar Finance: Commercial Bank won “Best Wealth Management Bank in Qatar” at the TAB Global Middle East Awards 2026. Bahrain Events: Exhibition World Bahrain picked up a major venue award, boosting its MICE profile. Energy Security: UAE is installing steel “cope cages” around fuel tanks to blunt drone threats. Lebanon Economy: World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will contract 6.4% in 2026 amid war damage and collapsing tourism. Shipping Diversions: South Korea launched a trial Arctic container voyage as Middle East disruptions push Asia-Europe trade onto longer routes. Cyber Threats: Iran-linked hackers reportedly shut a UK power plant for four days, underscoring infrastructure vulnerability.

Aviation Milestone in Qatar: Maryam Al Naimi became the first Qatari woman to earn an Air Navigation Services Inspector licence, highlighting growing opportunities for women in specialised aviation roles. Gaza Diplomacy Pressure: Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan and Indonesia urged Israel to move ahead with the latest Gaza framework, warning against withdrawal while Hamas remains armed. US Immigration Court Ruling: A federal judge struck down Trump’s 75-country immigrant visa ban, calling it “patently unlawful” and beyond the State Department’s authority, affecting applicants across Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and South Asia. Middle East Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan’s Makkah defence agreement is framed as a new regional security order as US-Iran talks stall and sanctions intensify. Shipping & Energy Routes: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to meet France’s Macron in Paris to sign deals and discuss alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions. Regional Humanitarian Update: At least 13 Tunisians are missing after a migrant boat sank off Tunisia, with two survivors rescued as Europe-backed crackdowns continue. US Navy Deployment: The USS Abraham Lincoln left the Middle East after a nine-month deployment, following renewed family concerns over sailors’ mental health.

Lebanon’s Economic Shock: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s economy will shrink 6.4% in 2026, blaming the renewed Israel-Hezbollah war for collapsing tourism, hitting consumption, disrupting supply chains, and prolonging displacement; inflation is expected to jump to 17.5%. U.S.-Iran Tensions and Markets: European gas prices surged to the highest since March as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and Iran-related risks threaten winter supply buffers, while U.S. stocks rose Friday but stayed choppy as bond yields swung. Regional Security Watch: Zelensky said the UN will help find ways to end the war after a call with UN chief António Guterres, as Russia continues strikes and the food-security fallout spreads. Defense Deals: The U.S. approved a possible air-to-air APKWS-II weapons sale to Italy worth about $364 million. Pakistan Fuel Exports: Pakistan’s refineries got approval to export about 185,000 metric tons of fuel oil in August while keeping strategic reserves for domestic power needs.