AGP Executive Report

Energy Shock: Brent crude climbed above $115 a barrel, its highest in more than five months, as Iran threatened to target Gulf energy and infrastructure sites if the US and Israel launch new attacks. Houthi attacks have added to fears over regional supply routes. Diplomacy and Security: Regional and European officials met in Istanbul for talks amid rising Iran tensions, while reports said the US was reducing its military and diplomatic presence in the Middle East. Economic Strain: The IMF expects the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan economy to contract 1.3% in 2026; Coface also downgraded Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, citing regional tensions. Egypt’s Energy Transition: Scatec and the EBRD established a renewable-energy investment platform backed by up to $221 million, supporting solar, wind and battery projects in Egypt. Digital Investment: Orange Egypt reaffirmed plans to invest in AI, cloud services, cybersecurity, digital education and entrepreneurship.

Iran Tensions: The U.S. and Israel have reportedly drafted plans for renewed strikes on Iran after next month’s U.S. midterms, while Washington is moving troops from bases in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait and ordering some diplomats to leave the region. Gulf Security & Oil: Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reported tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to $113.17 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s air defences and energy routes face growing pressure. Economic Fallout: The IMF warns the conflict could shrink Middle East and North African economies by 1.3%, while Pakistan faces higher energy costs and financial risks. The World Bank says Pakistan needs deeper reforms to lift growth and create jobs. Diplomacy & Regional Ties: Qatar and France pledged to deepen cooperation and support regional diplomacy, including efforts to restore safe passage through Hormuz. In the eastern Mediterranean, Libya’s eastern parliament approved a maritime deal with Türkiye, raising tensions with Greece, Cyprus and Israel.

Gulf Security: Two people were killed and eight injured in an attack on a Saudi airport, as Houthi threats and US warnings of possible attacks heighten concern across the region. Shipping and Oil: Iran’s state television says seven tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz; the report has not been independently confirmed. Oil climbed above $112 a barrel amid fears of further disruption. Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Europe and the Middle East meet in Istanbul Friday to discuss Iran, Yemen, Gaza, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping risks. Iran Tensions: Reports say the US and Israel are considering renewed military action against Iran, with major decisions possibly delayed until after November’s US midterms. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts UAE growth of 7.7% in 2027. The World Bank expects Pakistan’s inflation to reach 8.2% this fiscal year, citing higher energy costs linked to the conflict. Regional Business and Health: Sharjah’s chamber brought more than 140 Ethiopian business representatives together at a forum focused on trade ties. In Saudi Arabia, King Faisal Specialist Hospital says it is expanding AI, robotic surgery and emergency-care services.

Saudi Security: A drone attack at King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one person and injured eight, Saudi authorities said. A separate strike near the Shaybah oilfield killed two; production was unaffected. Washington ordered non-emergency embassy staff and families to leave Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks raise regional risks. Iran Tensions: The US and Israel have drawn up plans for possible strikes on Iranian nuclear, energy and military sites after the November 3 US midterms, The New York Times reported, though President Donald Trump has not approved an operation and diplomacy continues. Qatar Diplomacy: A former Tunisian diplomat urged Qatar to use its mediation role to prevent a wider war. Doha and Paris also pledged to deepen cooperation in defence, security, energy and trade during President Emmanuel Macron’s visit. Energy and Travel: Oil climbed toward $110 a barrel amid supply fears. Saudi airlines have resumed some Riyadh flights, while other carriers continue cancellations and warnings reflect ongoing uncertainty.

Yemen Escalation: Houthis said they struck a Saudi-linked position in Aden, the third attack there in a week, after a missile hit the presidential compound. Britain and France are deploying defensive support to Saudi Arabia, raising concerns they could be drawn deeper into the conflict. Hormuz Diplomacy: King Charles praised Oman’s mediation efforts as Sultan Haitham visits the UK. Muscat is seeking to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route disrupted by the wider war. Ceasefire Talks: Iran’s nuclear programme has resurfaced as a major obstacle, with Tehran defending its right to enrich uranium and Washington demanding zero enrichment. Trade and Infrastructure: Cargo handled at Omani ports rose 62% in the first eight months of 2026, while container volumes climbed 21%—growth that could strengthen Oman’s role in regional trade as Hormuz risks persist. FedEx also expanded dangerous-goods road shipping across five Gulf markets.

Energy and Security: Brent climbed toward $110 a barrel as vessel attacks spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen’s Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil facilities and airports. Fighting in Yemen also intensified, with reports of 73 deaths in an attack on government forces. Regional Diplomacy: Bahrain and France agreed to cooperate on training and expertise for a civilian nuclear program during President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Manama. Macron and King Hamad also discussed investment, defense and regional tensions. Saudi Arabia: Bangladesh is seeking answers after Saudi Arabia executed two Bangladeshi nationals in Mecca without notifying Dhaka in advance. Bangladesh says it is awaiting the full verdict and details of the case.

Saudi Security: The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites and airports, claims Riyadh has not confirmed. Gulf markets fell, Saudi Arabia postponed its flagship investment summit until 2027, and the UK is sending Typhoon jets for defensive missions. Energy and Travel: Brent crude hovered near $110 a barrel as regional supply risks mounted; the US also warned citizens across 12 Middle Eastern countries of possible travel disruption. Gaza and West Bank: Four people, including a teenager, were reported killed in Israeli strikes and gunfire in Gaza despite a ceasefire. Amnesty accused Israeli settlers of using violence to drive Palestinians from the occupied West Bank. Regional Business: Dubai is partnering with AI firms to help thousands of local companies adopt agentic AI, while Qatar says it plans to establish local defence production.

Regional Escalation: Oil hovered near $110 a barrel as Houthi attacks claimed against Saudi energy and airport targets heightened supply fears. Iran warned it would retaliate if its energy infrastructure were hit again, while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain high. Saudi Arabia: Riyadh postponed its flagship Future Investment Initiative conference until 2027 after deadly attacks, underscoring the conflict’s impact on investment plans. Gaza: Aid cuts and a halt to commercial shipments are deepening food shortages, adding to the region’s worsening humanitarian strain. Travel and Diplomacy: US embassies issued heightened-vigilance warnings across the region amid fears of further escalation. Qatar and Singapore, meanwhile, agreed to elevate ties to a strategic partnership.

West Bank: The UAE condemned Israeli settlers’ attack on a European diplomatic delegation in Taybeh, calling for an independent investigation and accountability. Gulf Diplomacy: Kuwait and France signed eight agreements covering defense, aviation, AI, investment and cancer care as President Emmanuel Macron began a Gulf tour. China’s premier also pledged to promote dialogue and stability in the region. Energy and Shipping: Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz kept pressure on markets; Brent crude was about $110 a barrel, while Bangladesh said the Middle East crisis had added $4.12 billion to its energy costs in eight months. Workers Abroad: An insurance payout of 30 million Ugandan shillings to the family of a migrant worker who died in Dubai highlights the risks faced by overseas workers and the value of coverage. Syria’s Schools: A new study of 130 textbooks says the post-Assad curriculum emphasizes Islamist themes and jihad, while omitting Syrian Jewish history and rejecting Israel’s right to exist.

Regional Escalation: Egypt is seeking parliamentary authorisation to help defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh asks, as Houthi attacks intensify; a projectile injured six people in Saudi Arabia’s Najran. A vote is expected Monday. Iran and Shipping: Tehran says a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table, while the IRGC has threatened retaliation if Iranian energy sites are attacked. Energy Markets: Oil eased after Washington waived some Russia sanctions, but Brent remained above $108 a barrel as Middle East security risks continue to threaten supply routes. Gaza: Families are turning flour sacks into barriers against winter floods, as displacement and harsh weather compound the humanitarian strain. Health Research: Qatar’s Sidra Medicine urged regional researchers to turn microbiome discoveries into better diagnosis and treatment.

Iran–Kurdish Tensions: Drones launched from Iran struck a Komala opposition base in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, damaging buildings but causing no reported casualties. Kurdish groups fear attacks could intensify after US forces left Iraq. Saudi-Yemen Escalation: Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities are raising regional alarm. Egypt says it will support Saudi Arabia’s defence and is seeking parliamentary approval for possible military aid. Energy & Travel: Brent crude has topped $110 a barrel amid Gulf supply fears, while airlines extend flight suspensions to Saudi Arabia, disrupting travel and adding pressure on trade. Gaza’s Winter: Families are turning flour sacks into flood barriers as winter approaches, with safe shelter still out of reach for many. Oman’s Port Handover: Salalah’s operating concession will end in 2028, putting about $200 million in leased equipment and other commercial agreements in focus as Oman prepares a new operator.

Yemen and Gulf Security: Yemeni official Afrah Al-Zouba rejected Tehran’s offer to mediate, accusing Iran of arming and financing the Houthis. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and reports of tankers hit near Saudi Arabia and in the Strait of Hormuz are heightening shipping concerns. Energy Costs: Brent crude neared $110 a barrel amid supply fears. Pakistan’s finance minister says the country has supplies through November, but warned that attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure threaten its longer-term outlook; rising fuel and transport costs are already squeezing households. Gaza and West Bank: Gaza faces another winter without safe shelter, with flour sacks turned into flood barriers. In the occupied West Bank, settler violence injured Palestinians and a Washington Post photographer; the US ambassador to Israel called for those responsible to be prosecuted. Iran War: President Donald Trump said the conflict would end “very quickly” while defending US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Energy and Shipping: Two tankers were hit near Saudi Arabia’s Jubail coast, while Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel amid wider regional supply fears. Travel Disruptions: Air India and Air India Express extended cancellations to Jeddah, Riyadh and Dammam through October 24 as security concerns disrupt Gulf travel. Yemen and West Bank: Three children were reported killed in an airstrike in Yemen; Houthi authorities blamed Saudi Arabia, which had not commented. A Washington Post photographer was also seriously injured in an attack by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank. Industry: A Turkish-Libyan venture plans a $2.5 billion iron plant near Benghazi, aiming to produce more than eight million tonnes a year and expand Libya’s industrial exports. Egypt: President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said his term would end in 2030 and proposed a 30-month military academy programme to prepare future leaders. Digital Infrastructure: The World Economic Forum urged MENA countries to treat AI data centres as critical infrastructure and plan for their growing power needs.

Escalation: Missiles struck Aden airport as a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile headed for Yanbu, a key oil-export hub. The Houthis were blamed for the Aden attack but did not claim responsibility. Travel and shipping: Australia warned citizens not to travel to Saudi Arabia, while Air India extended flight cancellations. Two vessels carrying 24 Indian seafarers were also hit in separate incidents; all crew were safe. Diplomacy: Iran denied Saudi Arabia’s accusation that it encouraged Houthi attacks. India condemned strikes on Saudi airports and commercial ships, while China called for dialogue and renewed access for aid to Gaza. Economic fallout: Brent crude touched $110 a barrel as attacks and threats to shipping heightened fears of supply disruptions. West Bank: Israeli settlers attacked Palestinian villages during the olive harvest, torching cars and trees and injuring a journalist.

Energy and Shipping: September oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to about 10 million barrels a day, but crude remains above $100 as war risks keep supply uncertain. Qatar urged the UN Security Council to protect freedom of navigation and reopen the strait. Regional Escalation: Houthi strikes on Yemen’s presidential palace in Aden and threats to Saudi infrastructure are raising risks for Gulf security and aviation. Diplomacy: Türkiye’s foreign minister heads to Baghdad for OIC talks on Gaza and regional tensions; China also urged Israel to halt West Bank settlements and restore full humanitarian access to Gaza. Economic Fallout: The IMF warned that a prolonged Middle East war and energy shock threaten growth, with poorer countries particularly exposed to higher prices and shrinking aid. Iraq: Baghdad says the Sinjar security and governance question must be resolved by Iraqis, as many Yazidis remain displaced a decade after ISIS seized the city.

Gaza and the West Bank: A UN official warned the situation is dangerously fragile and renewed war must be avoided, citing continued Israeli operations and roughly 1,500 deaths in Gaza since the ceasefire. He urged a credible path to peace and warned that families face winter without safe shelter and basic services. Regional Security and Energy: Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil above $105 a barrel and raising concerns about supply routes. Gulf Economies: The IMF says the UAE and Saudi Arabia are better placed to absorb the shock thanks to financial buffers and alternative export routes, while the wider GCC faces a sharp downturn this year. The UAE’s central bank governor nevertheless forecasts growth near 10% in 2027. Health: Egyptian oncologist Hisham Ghazaly became the first Arab recipient of a global oncology award, recognized for advancing precision cancer care and research.